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Which countries will lead the drone industry by 2030?

China builds most of them, Ukraine and Russia fight with them, and Turkey, Poland, and Israel sell them. Not by drone count. 7 jobs, 9 countries: building, banning, fighting, selling, shipping, inventing, protecting. China builds them: 70% of the world's civilian drones, and with Hong Kong $4.6 billion of exports in 2025, more than the next 18 exporting countries combined. The US bans them: every new DJI model blacklisted in December 2025. Ukraine fights with them: 4 million built in 2025, 7 million planned for 2026. Russia matches it: 1.2 to 1.8 million a year. Turkey sells them: Baykar, $2.2 billion in 2025 by its own count, mostly military. Poland ships them: the number 3 drone exporter on Earth, $882 million, ahead of the United States, Europe's route to Ukraine. And the Netherlands, my home country, is number 5 at $632 million. Israel invented them: IAI and Elbit, drones sold to 49 countries. India protects its own: imports banned since 2022. Most of my $150 billion drone market in 2030 still starts in Shenzhen.

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