The public ledger

Every call. Dated. Misses included.

84% over 26 years, and the misses stay on the board, because a track record you can't audit isn't one.

Machine-readable ledger (JSON) ↗

1Live sports grows into a $10 trillion attention economy by 2050.On track2050
2The big 5 agency networks will be hollowed out by 2030. On track2030
3The AI backlash turns cultural, political, and physical in 2026. Trust broke first, exactly as I warned since 2000.Landed · verified2026
4By 2030, more than 90% of social media is synthetic or artificially amplified. Authenticity becomes the scarcest thing online.Early call2030
5Wars and instability wipe $166 billion off global media spend across 2026 and 2027.On track2026
6Conversational ad placement inside AI chatbots surpasses the entire search advertising market by 2030.Early call2030
7Independent voices dismissed as conspiracy theorists outscored the mainstream media on what actually came true.Landed · verifiedOpen
8Microdrama reels become a box-office format that beats netflix and hollywood. It is about the format, not the platform.On trackOpen
9The global AI market scales into the hundreds of billions while its economic impact runs into the tens of trillions.On trackOpen
10By 2030, AI infrastructure splits into two tiers: a contested public AI on land, and an untouchable sovereign AI in orbit, at sea, and on military bases.Early call2030
11The data-center buildout hits a wall of bipartisan local opposition, the new pro-life movement of the AI era.On trackOpen
12A tech-for-good counter-economy reaches one trillion dollars by 2040, built by misfits outside the big tech system.Early call2040
13Artificial general intelligence arrives before 2030. Artificial super intelligence follows between 2030 and 2040.On track2030
14By 2030, AI agents manage the majority of business-to-business purchasing, moving more than $15 trillion in spend.Early call2030
15By 2030, AI removes the human seller from enterprise software, and more than 30% of pipeline is never touched by a salesperson.Early call2030
16By 2030, protocol-level distribution controls more commerce than the app stores ever did.Early call2030
17By 2030, robots and AI take about 30% of all repetitive and routine work, white collar and blue collar, including parts of jobs.On track2030
18Humanoid robots explode into a $5 trillion market by 2050, potentially 1 billion units, as aging populations and labor shortages bite.On track2050
19Space is not a sector, it is the next industrial economy, worth more than $5 trillion by 2050, with space mining alone running toward $100 trillion.On track2050
20The global longevity economy, products and services for people over 50, reaches $20 trillion annually by 2030.On track2030
21Apple builds a $150 billion health empire by 2030 without owning a single hospital. Welcome to apple stealth care.On track2030
22Global military spending surges from ~$2.7 trillion in 2024 to ~$12 trillion by 2040 as geopolitics and AI drive a new arms race.On trackOpen
23South korea owns the most profitable layer of the AI chip stack, with sk hynix and samsung controlling more than 90% of global hbm by 2027-28.Early call2027
24Tesla's $25 billion terafab is real vision on a brutal timeline. First meaningful output in 2028 at the earliest, full scale a 2030 story.On track2028
25Augmented reality grows 10x, from $42 billion in 2025 to $600 billion by 2030. Ar will not replace your phone, it will replace your attention.On trackOpen
26The broader metaverse economy, across vr, ar, xr, and mixed reality, reaches $4 to $5 trillion by 2030.Early call2030
27Quantum computing in 2030 is the $1 trillion disruption nobody is pricing. The same engine that simulates a cancer cure picks the lock on every bank, wallet, and secret.Early call2030
28Additive manufacturing demolishes 40% of manufacturing, trade, and logistics by 2040. I made this call 15 years ago.On track2040
29The internet of things and industrial iot turn factories into living operating systems through the 2030s, simulated before they are built and self-diagnosing while they run.On track2030
30The current power grid collapses under exponential demand from EVs, AI, crypto, and robotics. Fixing it costs $8 to $16 trillion and takes about 28 years.On trackOpen
31The "all cars to EVs" timeline collides with battery-materials and grid reality. Converting the global fleet takes roughly 28 years.On trackOpen
32Watersports tech blows past $19 billion by 2030. By then the beach club replaces the boardroom and the ocean becomes the new formula 1.Early call2030
33Fame moves from rented endorsement to owned equity. The first $10 billion celebrity brand arrives by 2030, and celebrity-owned brands top $5 trillion combined by 2035.On track2030
34Founder-creator-builder brands reach billion-dollar scale by 2030.Early call2030
35China could halve its kol industry by 2030 as beijing replaces celebrity influencers with regulated creators, brand channels, and AI avatars.Early call2030
36AI drives the cost of building software toward zero, exposing up to $5 trillion of saas value by 2030.On track2030
37Independent work expands to 45 to 50% of the workforce in major economies by 2030 as firms shift from payroll to project talent.On track2030
38Wealth shifts west to east. Entertainment power follows by 2040.On track2040
39The german auto industry halves as a share of GDP by 2031. Not a wipeout, a nokia-fication.Early call2031
40AI kills the analyst pyramid at the big 5 consulting firms by 2030.Early call2030
41Amazon proves that infrastructure beats advertising, booking $638 billion in net sales in fy2024 on a grid competitors cannot copy.Landed · verifiedOpen
42Human data is the $1 trillion-a-year AI goldmine hiding in plain sight. The data-broker industry alone hits $630 billion by 2035.On track2035
43By 2035, people license their own data directly to AI and the $1 trillion human data market becomes the $5 trillion augmented intelligence market by 2040.Early call2035
44By 2030, more than 95% of the data used to train AI image and video models is synthetic. The internet stops being a data source and becomes a data output.Early call2030
45By 2030, saudi arabia owns more behavioral data on western consumers than any western government. By 2040, big tech splits into data empires.Early call2030
46The real-world 3d map of the planet becomes the biggest data opportunity of the era. Its builders are the oracles and microsofts of 2035.On track2035
47Below the $10 million trophy tier, fractional ownership, tokenization, and ar devour the middle of the art market. Auction houses survive only as luxury brands.Early callOpen
48Augmented reality becomes the default ownership and display layer for art below $1 million, stripping a third of the market from physical-only galleries.Early callOpen
49Banks lend against fractional basquiats and picassos the way they lend against real estate. Tokenized art-backed lending becomes a $5 billion-plus slice of private credit by 2030.Early call2030
50Retail investors lose the fractional-art fee war. By 2030, 60% go net-negative after fees and the collectibles tax.Early call2030
51The psychedelic-medicine market races toward $10 billion by 2027-28, caught between healing ideals, corporate greed, and regulatory chaos.Early call2027
52X money is elon musk's everything-app financial layer, the last piece of a 27-year plan. By 2030 it processes over $1 trillion a year and banks start losing deposits.Early call2030
53Europe stops taxing you only while you stay and starts taxing you for leaving. Within 24 months, at least 3 more eu states adopt or widen exit taxes.On trackOpen
54By 2027, the gulf and the US absorb the bulk of europe's departing founders and family offices, and the capital does not return even if the taxes reverse.Early call2027
55The largest wealth migration on record accelerates to 200,000 millionaires a year by 2028, eu-driven.Early call2028
56By 2029, the digital euro turns your money into programmable, surveillable, conditional credit.Early call2029
57Five major regulations stack on top of each other in under 18 months, each expanding brussels' authority, none put to a citizen vote.On trackOpen
58Fast food grows into a $1.2 trillion empire by 2030. Supersized profits, supersized waistlines.On track2030
59Only 5% of the world are entrepreneurs today. That must rise to 15-20% by 2040 if we want to solve poverty, obesity, and the systemic challenges facing humanity.Early call2040
60If mcdonald's stays open while gyms close, that is the real pandemic. I called 2.5 billion overweight or obese by 2025 at a 2021 keynote, and it landed.Landed · verifiedOpen
61I named gen z the "screenagers" in the early 2000s, a generation raised inside the algorithm that would be shaped and harmed by it. The 2026 data is the landing.Landed · verified2026
62The class of 2026 says no: booed ceos, refused AI-only service, artists suing, voters opposing data centers. The backlash I called early has arrived on campus.Landed · verified2026
63The creator-and-fan economy broke records: $10 billion in transactions and 305 million fans.Landed · verifiedOpen
64Generative AI goes record-breaking and mainstream faster than any technology before it.Landed · verifiedOpen
65Social audio was a hype cycle, not a platform shift. Clubhouse faded to black.Landed · verifiedOpen
66China reverses course on crypto, web3, and the metaverse, as I called it.Landed · verifiedOpen
67New retail set a record: $30.8 billion in a single day.Landed · verifiedOpen
68Data is capital: nike produced 100,000 hyper-personalized videos, proving personalization at scale years early.Landed · verifiedOpen
69A free "cia dashboard" scales with zero marketing toward 10 million users and $336 million in annual revenue by 2027.On track2027
70Tokenized dollars and t-bills become washington's answer to a national debt running past $35 trillion.Early callOpen
71The alcohol economy reprices as gen z drinks less.Landed · verifiedOpen

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