Igor's call, in full

The art market is about to split in two. The trophy tier above $10 million stays human, exclusive, and physical. Everything below it gets devoured by fractional ownership, tokenization, and AR rendering. I forecast the auction houses survive only as luxury brands, not as the market's engine. On a $59.6 billion global art market in 2025, I forecast fractional platforms cross $10 billion in assets under management by 2028, on-chain trading passes the auction room by 2030, and the middle market is effectively buried by 2035. Behind it sits the biggest tailwind of all: the $83 trillion Great Wealth Transfer reroutes through fractional and AR rails by 2032, as a younger generation inherits and buys art the way it buys everything else, digitally and in pieces.

Adjacent calls

Augmented reality becomes the default ownership and display layer for art below $1 million, stripping a third of the market from physical-only galleries.Early callBanks lend against fractional basquiats and picassos the way they lend against real estate. Tokenized art-backed lending becomes a $5 billion-plus slice of private credit by 2030.Early callRetail investors lose the fractional-art fee war. By 2030, 60% go net-negative after fees and the collectibles tax.Early call

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