Early call

Igor's call · SOVEREIGN DATA GEOPOLITICS

By 2030, saudi arabia owns more behavioral data on western consumers than any western government. By 2040, big tech splits into data empires.

Resolves2030
Track record84% over 26 years
StatusPublic · call Nº 45
Every call dated & publicFull scoreboard

Igor's call, in full

Data is now a geopolitical weapon, and the world's most powerful nations are already at war over it. I forecast that by 2030, Saudi Arabia owns more behavioral data on Western consumers than any Western government does, deployed through sovereign wealth and strategic acquisitions. And by 2040, Big Tech stops being defined by the products it sells and starts being defined by the data territory it controls, Google owns intent, Meta owns social, Oracle owns enterprise and government, Amazon owns transactions, like a 19th-century colonial land grab. The receipts are landing: the US Stargate initiative commits $500 billion; China profiles 1.4 billion people in real time; the EU fined X 120 million euros; and Saudi Arabia's PIF bought Pokémon Go's gaming division for $3.5 billion, while Niantic kept the map and spun out Niantic Spatial with $250 million.

SAUDI ARABIA OUT-DATAS THE WEST BY 2030.
BIG TECH BECOMES DATA EMPIRES BY 2040, DEFINED BY TERRITORY, NOT PRODUCTS.

Adjacent calls

Live sports grows into a $10 trillion attention economy by 2050.On trackAugmented reality grows 10x, from $42 billion in 2025 to $600 billion by 2030. Ar will not replace your phone, it will replace your attention.On trackThe broader metaverse economy, across vr, ar, xr, and mixed reality, reaches $4 to $5 trillion by 2030.Early call

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