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/////Forecasting, PAR, and Independence
Why do most predictions fail?
Most predictions fail because they chase headlines instead of forces. Igor Beuker argues failure comes from extrapolating today rather than modeling incentives, technology curves, and behavior. A trend is never a straight line. It stalls, accelerates, and compounds. Forecasters who ignore the machinery underneath get the direction wrong at the exact moment getting it right would have mattered most.
///More on Forecasting, PAR, and Independence
01What is Igor Beuker's Prediction Accuracy Rate (PAR)?02Why does Igor Beuker publish his Prediction Accuracy Rate?03How does Igor Beuker's PAR compare to other forecasters?04Why do organizations trust Igor Beuker's forecasts?05What does it mean that Igor Beuker is an independent futurist?06Why does independence matter in forecasting?
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