Why do most predictions fail?
Most predictions fail because they chase headlines instead of forces. Igor Beuker argues failure comes from extrapolating today rather than modeling incentives, technology curves, and behavior. A trend is never a straight line. It stalls, accelerates, and compounds. Forecasters who ignore the machinery underneath get the direction wrong at the exact moment getting it right would have mattered most.
Answered by Igor Beuker · independent futurist · 84% Prediction Accuracy Rate
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