Will drones replace delivery vans?

No. Not by 2030, not by 2040. The world ships over 200 billion parcels a year, heading for 250 billion by 2030. Drones flew about 8 million of them in 2025. Even if Amazon delivers its promised 500 million a year and Zipline and Uber Eats hit their 1 million a day, drones carry under 1 billion parcels in 2030. That is 1 parcel in 250. Vans win on volume. Drones win on the clock: a Zipline flight takes 3 minutes, a van 30. The van keeps the boxes, the drone takes the hurry. That is why I put delivery at $15 billion of my $150 billion drone market in 2030, not more.