Early call

Igor's call · AI INFRASTRUCTURE BIFURCATES

By 2030, AI infrastructure splits into two tiers: a contested public AI on land, and an untouchable sovereign AI in orbit, at sea, and on military bases.

Resolves2030
Track record84% over 26 years
StatusPublic · call Nº 10
Every call dated & publicFull scoreboard

Igor's call, in full

Watch where the compute is going. I forecast that by 2030, AI infrastructure formally splits in two. Public AI stays on land, where it can be taxed, regulated, and protested. Sovereign AI moves out of reach, into orbit, onto the ocean, onto military bases. Once that split locks in, AI as a public good is dead. The moves are already underway. Google's Project Suncatcher is putting 81 AI chips in space. Anthropic has been in orbital-compute talks with SpaceX. Peter Thiel put $140 million into Panthalassa, a billion-dollar ocean-compute play. China switched on an undersea data center in May 2026. And Core Power is building a 300-megawatt floating nuclear plant for the Pentagon by 2028. The elites are building an AI you cannot reach, cannot regulate, and cannot switch off. That is the real infrastructure story.

PUBLIC AI: ON LAND, REGULATED, CONTESTED.
SOVEREIGN AI: IN ORBIT, ON THE OCEAN, ON BASES. UNTOUCHABLE.

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