Igor's call, in full

Germany's proudest industry is being quietly hollowed out. I forecast the German auto industry halves as a share of GDP, from 6 percent to 3 percent, by 2031. I call it the Nokia-fication. This is the key insight: China does not win by making German carmakers extinct. It wins by making them irrelevant, the way the smartphone made Nokia irrelevant while Nokia was still selling phones. The German giants keep building cars nobody under 40 aspires to, while the future gets built elsewhere. The lesson for any incumbent: irrelevance kills you long before bankruptcy does. Germany is learning it in real time.

Adjacent calls

The "all cars to EVs" timeline collides with battery-materials and grid reality. Converting the global fleet takes roughly 28 years.On trackChina could halve its kol industry by 2030 as beijing replaces celebrity influencers with regulated creators, brand channels, and AI avatars.Early callBy 2030, saudi arabia owns more behavioral data on western consumers than any western government. By 2040, big tech splits into data empires.Early call

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