GERMAN AUTO 2031
German auto's economic weight halves: 6% of GDP to 3%.
Key figures
My call: by 2031 the German car industry halves from 6% to 3% of GDP, China wins by making Germany irrelevant, not extinct.
On the record: Instagram, 22 July 2026, and in Emerce in 2017 I said automotive gets turned completely upside down within 15 years.
The collapse: VW, BMW, and Mercedes' combined operating profit down 76% to $1.9 billion in Q3 2025, lowest since 2009, China sales down 30% to 41% in Q2 2026.
The disease: bureaucracy and bad timing, Germany bought quarters, China bought the decade.
German car manufacturers are not dying. I predict: by 2031, the German car industry halves from 6% to 3% of GDP. China wins by making Germany irrelevant, not extinct. I said automotive would be turned completely upside down within 15 years, in Emerce, in 2017. Right on schedule.
Tesla warned the German car brands early. They laughed. At Tesla. At my predictions. Now Tesla cannot even compete with China's BYD. Who is laughing now?
The scoreboard. Combined operating profit at VW, BMW, and Mercedes down 76% in Q3 2025, the lowest since 2009. China, once 39% of their sales, now 29% and falling 30% to 41% in a single quarter. Volkswagen third in China behind BYD and Geely; its own China boss admits young buyers see it as the brand for their parents.
VW closing German factories, Audi cutting 7,500 jobs, the chancellor calling an emergency auto summit.
The former economic engine of Europe has the same disease as the EU: bureaucracy and bad timing. The speed and timing of innovation is vital to competitiveness. Adapt fast or die another day. Blockbuster ignored it. Kodak ignored it. Now the German car manufacturers.
Advertising may win quarters. Innovation wins decades. Germany bought quarters. China bought the decade. Bookmark this for 2031.
The call, 22 July 2026→
