HUMANITY 2050
Humanity changes more in 25 years than in the previous 300.
Key figures
Space industry $5 trillion by 2050, $3 trillion of it from mining, my call on the record
Power grids: a $16 trillion bill and 800 new reactors by 2050, my call on the record
1.64 billion dirty cars in the world, governments say all must become electric: a 28-year clock, my call on the record
My par (prediction accuracy rate): 84% across 25 years of public calls, morgan stanley 46%, misses kept on the board
300 years took us from the steam engine to the smartphone. The next 30 do more than that. Not because a CEO says so. Because the money, the patents, and the people already moved.
Most forecasts you hear are stock pumps. Sam Altman says AGI in 2027. Zuckerberg said the metaverse was the future. These are share-price defense systems with a keynote attached. Even Elon Musk has promised robotaxis next year, every year since 2019. Great builder, optimistic clock.
My lens is different. 25 years, 2,500 stages in 141 countries, no book to sell, no employer to please. I read term sheets, tickers, patents, and passports, not press releases.
The receipts sit on this board. Space at $5 trillion. Power grids at $16 trillion. 1.64 billion cars to convert. Humanoids, longevity, military tech, each with a date and a number you can grade.
Skin in the game: $500,000 into SpaceX in 2018, Augmento's advisory board, 24 social startups.
Predictions are not always reality. My misses stay on the board. That is the difference between a futurist and a prophet: the prophet never gets graded.
