ONLYFANS 2030
OnlyFans hits $15 billion. 1% get rich, 99% get $131 a month.
Key figures
OnlyFans the company, 2025: fans spent $7.85 billion, OnlyFans kept 20%, $1.55 billion, and made about $520 million profit after tax, with 47 employees
The fairest cut in Big Tech: OnlyFans takes 20% from creators, Apple and Google take 30%, YouTube takes 45% of ad money, Twitch takes 50% of subscriptions
The creators: the average creator makes $131 a month after fees, 70% make less than $200 a month, the top 1% take 33% of all money, the top 10% take 73%, 5,076 creators have ever earned $1 million out of 4.6 million
The exit that never came: nobody paid $8 billion in 2025, the owner paid himself $535 million in dividends, 103% of profit, and in May 2026 Architect Capital bought 16% at a $3.15 billion valuation
My warning first. I understand people want to make money. But I do not support OnlyFans. Not because of sex. Because of role modeling: millions of young girls learn that their body is their business plan. I forecast the business. I do not endorse it.
The lesson the market misses: OnlyFans takes 20%. Apple and Google take 30%, YouTube 45%, Twitch 50%. The porn site pays creators better than Silicon Valley. That is why 4.6 million creators showed up.
The reality: the average creator makes $131 a month. 70% make less than $200. The top 1% take 33% of the money, the top 10% take 73%. 5,076 people have ever made $1 million: 1 in 900. Cardi B is the ad. The 4 million girls behind her are the product.
The platform cleared $520 million in 2025 with 47 employees. Yet nobody would buy it for $8 billion. The owner took $535 million in dividends, died at 43, and his widow sold 16% at $3.15 billion. Banks and card companies still refuse to touch the business.
Regulators will tax it with friction, not kill it: Ofcom in the UK, age checks in 25 US states, the Digital Services Act in Europe, China blocked. The real regulator is Visa and Mastercard: 1 memo switches off a region.
My call: fans spend $15 billion a year on OnlyFans by 2030, up from $7.85 billion in 2025, with 750 million fan accounts, up from 377 million. The IPO lands in 2028.
OnlyFans, my 2021 call→
