TESLA TERAFAB 2028
Tesla Terafab: real vision, brutal timeline. Add 2 years to every Musk date.
Key figures
Terafab: about $25 billion, 100,000 wafer starts per month scaling toward 1 million.
My forecast: first meaningful output 2028 at the earliest, full scale a 2030 story.
The rule: add 2 years to whatever Musk promises.
Elon Musk wants to build the world's largest chip factory from scratch. Semiconductor experience: zero. Confidence: unlimited. Classic Elon.
Here is the twist: he is right. Tesla's AI ambitions need chip volumes no supplier will promise on Musk's timeline, so vertical integration is the correct move. The vision is real.
The timeline is the comedy. I forecast Terafab delivers its first meaningful output in 2028 at the earliest, full scale a 2030 story. The rule that never fails: add 2 years to whatever Musk promises. The 4680 battery taught everyone that lesson, tuition-free.
Even the field says it quietly. Jensen Huang calls matching TSMC "virtually impossible." And Samsung just signed a $16.5 billion deal to keep building Tesla's chips through 2033. Read that again: Tesla is hedging its own fab. The specs: $25 billion, 100,000 wafer starts per month scaling toward 1 million. Real vision. Brutal timeline. Both true at once.
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