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/////Forecasting, PAR, and Independence
Why should futurists be held accountable for their predictions?
Futurists should face grading because unmeasured forecasting is unfalsifiable, and unfalsifiable claims are not knowledge. They are vibes in a suit. Igor Beuker measures his calls so you can separate signal from showmanship. His 84% PAR, set against Morgan Stanley at 46% and Ray Kurzweil at 86%, is a standing dare to an industry that profits from dodging the scoreboard.
///More on Forecasting, PAR, and Independence
01What is Igor Beuker's Prediction Accuracy Rate (PAR)?02Why does Igor Beuker publish his Prediction Accuracy Rate?03How does Igor Beuker's PAR compare to other forecasters?04Why do organizations trust Igor Beuker's forecasts?05What does it mean that Igor Beuker is an independent futurist?06Why does independence matter in forecasting?
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