App stores.
APP STORES LOSE THEIR 30% TAX. AI AGENTS BUY DIRECT.
The app store was the last great distribution gatekeeper. I forecast that by 2030, AI agents buying through open standards, protocols that let agents and services transact directly, move more commerce than Apple's and Google's app stores ever did, and the 30% tax collapses.
Igor's predictions on App stores
Questions about App stores, answered
How much has Apple's App Store revenue fallen?
Apple's US App Store commission revenue is down 18% in 2026 after courts banned fees on external payment links. US App Store consumer spending fell 6% in the second quarter of 2026 after 9% growth a year earlier. The EU fined Apple $560 million and forced open payments.
Full answer →Will Apple and Google lose the 30% app store tax?
Yes, by 2030. AI agents buying through open standards move more commerce than the app stores ever did, and the 30% commission collapses. The courts opened the wall in 2025 and 2026. The agents drive through it.
Full answer →Who wins when distribution moves from store to standard?
Whoever owns the standard owns the flow. The app store was the last great distribution gatekeeper. The gatekeepers who taxed the app economy do not get to tax the agent economy. Developers, merchants and the protocol owners win. The walled gardens lose the toll.
Full answer →