Quantum computing.
When does quantum computing arrive?
2030. For 30 years quantum was 5 years away. That joke just ended. McKinsey and Deloitte hide inside a decade-wide range. I name the year: 2030 is when quantum crosses from lab to leverage, the first fault-tolerant machines arrive, and re-encryption becomes law.
Igor's predictions on Quantum computing
Questions about Quantum computing, answered
Is Bitcoin safe from quantum computing?
Up to 35% of all Bitcoin sits in exposed addresses, Satoshi's 1.1 million coins included. BlackRock wrote quantum risk into its Bitcoin ETF filing while the influencers shouted number-go-up. The NSA set January 2027 as its quantum-safe deadline, NIST bans old encryption by 2035, the EU wants critical infrastructure safe by 2030.
Full answer →How much value does quantum computing create?
$1 trillion by 2035 on my call, with McKinsey's high end at $2.7 trillion. Quantum is not a faster computer. It is a lockpick in a lab coat: the machine that simulates a cancer cure picks the lock on every bank, every wallet, every secret you ever encrypted.
Full answer →When does quantum computing arrive?
2030. For 30 years quantum was 5 years away. That joke just ended. McKinsey and Deloitte hide inside a decade-wide range. I name the year: 2030 is when quantum crosses from lab to leverage, the first fault-tolerant machines arrive, and re-encryption becomes law.
Full answer →What should I do about quantum risk now?
Encrypt like it is already too late. For everything you sent before today, it is. Watch the money, not the hardware: Jensen Huang called quantum 15 to 30 years away in January 2025 and wiped $8 billion off the sector in a day. By 2026 he was funding it. Everyone times the hardware. I time the fear, and fear arrives before the machine.
Full answer →Will teleportation ever be real?
Teleportation of people will not be real in our lifetime. Teleportation of information already is. Quantum teleportation means moving the exact state of 1 particle to another far away, no cable in between, and China's Micius satellite did it over 1,200 kilometers in 2017. I predict advances in quantum science deliver breakthroughs that look almost magical by today's standards: quantum crosses from lab to leverage by 2030, with Google, IBM, and China leading the race. I separate the realistic near-term, unhackable quantum communication, from the fantastical far-term, and I am clear about which is which. The magic is real. The Star Trek version is not, yet.
Full answer →What should I start investing in from 2027?
Start with raw materials. Copper, lithium, rare earths and chips. Every AI chip, humanoid and battery starts there. Then the exponential technologies. The trends that double every year while the old economy adds 3%. AI. Humanoids. Quantum computing. Space. Then longevity. The longevity economy hits $40 trillion by 2036. I called Bitcoin on stage in 2008 and bought in 2011. Same eyes, new decade. Move before the crowd.
Full answer →What is Q-Day?
The day a quantum machine cracks the encryption guarding the internet. On aggressive estimates it lands between 2030 and 2033. Google's cost to break RSA-2048 fell 20-fold in 6 years, and Google now prices breaking Bitcoin at under 500,000 qubits.
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