← Knowledge Base

On my forecast, 1 in 5 AI tokens billed in 2030 is bait, $50 billion a year burned. Big enough to need auditors. Google processes 3.2 quadrillion tokens a month, 7x in 1 year. Goldman Sachs expects 120 quadrillion a month by 2030, most of it AI agents running tasks on their own. Nobody audits a single one. My forecast, by analogy to advertising: 1 in 5 tokens billed in 2030 is bait, the same 20% the ad industry loses to fake traffic today. On a $255 billion AI inference market that is $50 billion a year burned, $130 billion if the infrastructure forecasts hold. Independent token audits become a $3 to 6 billion market, the DoubleVerify of AI. What could change this: the cost of producing a token falls 60 to 70% a year, so the waste gets cheaper to make. And the AI companies could audit themselves first. In 25 years of digital marketing I have never seen an industry do that voluntarily. Until then, my well-paid staff in Asia still beat an AI burning my tokens. The human answers once and wins.

Winning foresight? Unlock our Secret Vault.

Foresight is better shared. Pass it on.

Answered by · independent futurist · 84% Prediction Accuracy Rate

1 related prediction card

120 QUADRILLION TOKENS A MONTH. 1 IN 5 IS BAIT. NOBODY AUDITS.

More FAQs about AI, AGI, Superintelligence (ASI, SI), and the Future of Intelligence

What is the Caveman skill for Claude Code?What is AI chatbait?Why did Trump rename AI to super intelligence (SI)?What is AI token bait?What is sycophancy in AI?When will AI reach human-level EQ?

Your question not here? Ask Igor. 2 questions, unlimited for Misfits.

Ask Igor
635 questions answered← Knowledge Base