Igor's call, in full

The baseline everyone expected was $1.32 trillion in both 2026 and 2027. I forecast that number does not hold. Between the 2026 World Cup pulling budgets around, the Middle East conflict, and rising oil prices squeezing advertisers, global media spend contracts 2 years running.

In 2026 it drops 7%, a $92 billion cut, landing at $1.23 trillion. In 2027 it drops another 6%, a $73.7 billion cut, landing at $1.15 trillion. That is $166 billion wiped off the market versus the baseline. For context on the trend line, actual global media spend ran $0.99 trillion in 2023, $1.09 trillion in 2024, and $1.20 trillion in 2025. The momentum was up. War and oil reverse it.

Iran is now in direct conflict with the U.S. and Israel. This is no longer proxy chess. This is an escalation with consequences, and advertising budgets are the first line CFOs cut when energy, freight, and uncertainty rise simultaneously.

The cut is not spread evenly. Meta and Google are automating the entire advertising stack with AI, and the ad stack collapses to brand, AI platform, consumer. Conversational ads inside LLMs will pass the ~$350 billion search market by 2030. So the shrinking pie flows to the platforms, and the agency layer in the middle eats the loss. Advertising may win quarters. Innovation wins decades.

Adjacent calls

The big 5 agency networks will be hollowed out by 2030. On trackConversational ad placement inside AI chatbots surpasses the entire search advertising market by 2030.Early callLive sports grows into a $10 trillion attention economy by 2050.On track

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