What is cobalt, and why does Congo control its supply?

Cobalt is a hard, silver-blue metal used in jet-engine superalloys, cutting tools, and rechargeable batteries. Lithium-ion batteries accounted for about 76% of global cobalt demand in 2024, according to the Cobalt Institute. Most cobalt is a by-product of copper and nickel mining. In 2025, the world mined about 310,000 metric tons of cobalt content. DR Congo produced 230,000, nearly 3 of every 4 tons. Indonesia followed with 44,000, and Madagascar added 3,900. Chinese companies operate major Congo mines, including CMOC, one of the world's largest cobalt producers. China also dominates global refining. The squeeze? Congo banned exports in February 2025, then introduced annual quotas of up to 96,600 metric tons for 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 tons for national strategic projects. US spot cathode prices averaged $16.77 per pound in 2024 and an estimated $21 in 2025, according to the USGS. US net import reliance was estimated at 79% in 2025. My forecast: cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate batteries gain market share through 2030, reducing cobalt's share of battery demand. Total cobalt demand may still grow. Price test: US spot cobalt cathode averages below $30 per pound in 2030.