What is gallium, and why does China control its supply?

Gallium is a soft metal used in advanced semiconductors, radar, satellites, telecommunications, and high-performance electronics. Its superpower? Helping chips operate at high frequencies and handle high power. Gallium is rarely mined directly. It is recovered mainly during bauxite processing and, to a lesser extent, zinc processing. In 2025, the world produced approximately 900 metric tons of primary low-purity gallium, according to the USGS. China accounted for 99%. Africa matters. Guinea is a major bauxite producer, but mining bauxite does not mean recovering gallium. The processing stage is the choke point. The geopolitical weapon? Export controls. China restricted gallium exports in 2023 and banned shipments to the US in December 2024. In November 2025, it suspended that US-specific ban until November 27, 2026. Export licenses are still required. The price shock? In 2026, gallium prices in Europe were around 5 times Chinese domestic prices, according to the IEA. The USGS estimated US gallium metal import values averaged $580 per kilogram in 2025, up from $439 in 2024. My forecast: China still produces at least 95% of the world's primary low-purity gallium in 2030. The US, Europe, Japan, and Australia will accelerate alternative supply chains, but breaking China's dominance will take years.