What is lithium, and why does China control its supply?

Lithium is the lightest metal on Earth and a critical ingredient in lithium-ion batteries. Batteries made up an estimated 88% of global lithium use in 2025, according to the USGS. In 2025, the world mined about 290,000 metric tons of lithium content, excluding undisclosed US output. Australia led with 92,000 tons, then China with 62,000 and Chile with 56,000. Africa is rising. Zimbabwe mined 28,000 tons, more than Argentina. Its mines include Chinese-owned Bikita (Sinomine) and Arcadia (Huayou). Mali added 9,400. In Congo, China's Zijin started production at the disputed Manono project in May 2026 and began shipping to China in June. The choke point? Refining. China mines about 21% of the world's lithium but refines roughly 70% of its lithium chemicals, according to the IEA. Battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged $63,700 per metric ton in 2022 and an estimated $9,000 in 2025, according to USGS data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. My forecast: electric vehicles and energy storage will account for over 90% of lithium demand by 2030. China will still lead lithium refining in 2030. The IEA's 2025 outlook projects a potential 40% gap in lithium mine supply by 2035 under its Stated Policies Scenario.