AI market.

About $500 billion in 2025 when you count the full layered cake, chips, compute, cloud, data centers, energy, data, models and software, and $2 trillion by 2030. The market is the visible tip. What it unlocks across every industry is the point: $15 trillion by 2030.

Any 1 layer of the cake: chips, energy, or people. Chips funnel through ASML, TSMC and Nvidia under an export-control war. Energy is the hardest layer: AI, EVs and robots pull on the same buckling grid. And people push back, voters block data centers. If 1 layer fails, the timeline slips, not the destination.

The chip funnel: ASML in the Netherlands, TSMC in Taiwan, Nvidia in California, all under an export-control war between the US and China. That is why Musk is building the Terafab: to escape the bottleneck. Whoever controls chips and energy controls the $2 trillion market and the $15 trillion it unlocks.

My model of the AI market: chips, compute, cloud, data centers, energy, data, models and software, stacked. Every layer must rise together, and any 1 layer can choke the rest. Most people price the top layer, the software. The money and the risk sit in the layers below.