Igor's call, in full

Without intervention, China's traditional KOL advertising industry could grow from $16.8 billion in 2025 to approximately $24.7 billion by 2030. But a severe regulatory crackdown could cut that 2030 market by 50 percent, wiping out roughly $12.4 billion in annual revenue and leaving the industry at only $12.3 billion. That would make China's KOL market in 2030 approximately $4.5 billion smaller than it was in 2025, despite 5 years of expected growth. Beijing does not want independent celebrity influencers with their own power base. It wants regulated creators, official brand channels, and AI avatars it can control.

Adjacent calls

By 2030, more than 90% of social media is synthetic or artificially amplified. Authenticity becomes the scarcest thing online.Early callMicrodrama reels become a box-office format that beats netflix and hollywood. It is about the format, not the platform.On trackFounder-creator-builder brands reach billion-dollar scale by 2030.Early call

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