CHINA KOL 2030
China's KOL crackdown: a $12 billion wipeout.
Key figures
Base case: China's KOL ad market grows from $16.8 billion in 2025 to $24.7 billion by 2030.
My call: a crackdown halves it, $12.4 billion wiped out, the 2030 market smaller than 2025.
The machine already runs: 100 million-follower accounts deleted overnight, 1.4 million posts purged, credentials now required to talk medicine, law, or finance.
On the record: I advise governments and world leaders on what is coming, I called China's crypto and Web3 reversal in June 2023, it landed.
Beijing has a new least-favorite celebrity: all of them. Left alone, China's KOL advertising industry grows from $16.8 billion in 2025 to $24.7 billion by 2030. I forecast the scenario nobody is modeling: a severe crackdown cuts that 2030 market by 50%, wiping out $12.4 billion a year and leaving the industry smaller than it was in 2025. 5 years of "growth," gone.
The machine is already running. Viya, the livestream queen selling billions a night, got a $210 million tax fine and vanished from every platform overnight. Li Jiaqi, the Lipstick King, disappeared for months after 1 wrong broadcast. Then the laws came. Beijing banned flaunting wealth online: accounts with 100 million followers deleted in a day, 1.4 million posts purged in 1 sweep. And since 2025, influencers need verified professional credentials to talk about medicine, law, finance, or education. No degree, no broadcast. Half of KOL content is non-experts making claims; that half just became illegal. The MCN agencies that manufacture these stars build on land the party can reclaim with 1 memo.
Their replacements never misbehave: AI avatars livestreaming on Douyin and Taobao 24/7. They never sleep, never get taxed wrong, never say the wrong thing about tanks.
Honesty on the record: if Beijing stays hands-off, I am wrong and the market doubles. It won't. I advise governments and world leaders on what is coming and what measures to take, and I know Beijing cracks down further. Laws and regulators can make or break a technology or a trend, which is why I read the lawmakers, not the marketers. I read the same intentions in June 2023 when I called China's reversal on crypto and Web3. It landed. In the West, influencers fear the algorithm. In China, the algorithm has a boss.