What is copper, and why does China control its refining?

Copper is the metal that carries electricity. Power grids, electric cars, wind turbines, and AI data centers all depend on copper wiring. In 2025, the world mined about 23 million metric tons of copper, according to the USGS. Chile led with 5.3 million, followed by DR Congo with 3.2 million and Peru with 2.7 million. Zambia added 940,000. Where copper is mined is not who owns it. In Chile, major producers include state-owned Codelco and BHP. In Congo, Chinese companies operate major mines, including CMOC at Tenke Fungurume and Zijin, which co-owns Kamoa-Kakula with Canada's Ivanhoe. The choke point? Refining. China mines about 8% of the world's copper but produced approximately 45% of refined copper in 2025. Trade is turning political. In August 2025, the US imposed a 50% tariff on specified semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives. Refined copper cathodes remained exempt. London Metal Exchange copper averaged approximately $9,945 per metric ton in 2025, then reached $14,850 on August 17, 2026, according to Chile's copper commission, Cochilco. My forecast: every year through 2030, the annual average London Metal Exchange copper price stays above $10,000 per metric ton. The IEA's 2026 outlook projects a potential 25% copper mine-supply gap by 2035, based on announced projects and projected demand.