Media spend.
Will global media spend fall in 2026?
Yes. The industry baseline was $1.32 trillion for 2026 and 2027. I forecast 2026 drops 7% to $1.23 trillion and 2027 another 6% to $1.15 trillion: $166 billion wiped off versus the baseline, after 3 years of growth from $0.99 trillion in 2023.
Igor's predictions on Media spend
Questions about Media spend, answered
Who loses the $166 billion in media spend?
The agency layer. Meta and Google automate the ad stack with AI, and ads inside AI answers grow toward $300 billion-plus by 2035, money taken from the old search page, not new money. A shrinking pie flows to the platforms. The middle, the holding companies and their planners, eats the loss.
Full answer →Will global media spend fall in 2026?
Yes. The industry baseline was $1.32 trillion for 2026 and 2027. I forecast 2026 drops 7% to $1.23 trillion and 2027 another 6% to $1.15 trillion: $166 billion wiped off versus the baseline, after 3 years of growth from $0.99 trillion in 2023.
Full answer →What was global media spend before the drop?
$0.99 trillion in 2023, $1.09 trillion in 2024, $1.20 trillion in 2025. The trend was up and the industry expected $1.32 trillion for both 2026 and 2027. I forecast that baseline breaks: $1.23 trillion in 2026 and $1.15 trillion in 2027.
Full answer →Why does war hit advertising first?
Because ad budgets are the first line a CFO cuts when energy, freight and uncertainty rise together. The US and Israel went to war with Iran on 28 February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz is still contested and oil is expensive. My call: global media spend drops 7% in 2026 and 6% in 2027, $166 billion wiped off versus the baseline. Advertising may win quarters. Innovation wins decades.
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